SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure | SDG 13: Climate Action
Ministry of Earth Sciences | India Meteorological Department (IMD)
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has significantly enhanced the accuracy of its operational monthly and seasonal forecasts for the Southwest Monsoon, confirming that both its first and second stage forecasts for the 2025 season were accurate. This marked improvement in predictive capability is due to the implementation of the new Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system.
Key Outcomes of the Enhanced Forecasting System:
Improved Accuracy: The average absolute error in operational monsoon forecasts during 2021–2024 was reduced to 2.28% of the Long Period Average (LPA), significantly lower than the 7.5% of LPA recorded in the preceding four years (2017–2020).
2025 Verification:
The realized 2025 seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 108% of its LPA.
This result was within the forecast limits provided by both the first stage (105% of LPA ±4%) and second stage (106% of LPA ±4%) forecasts.
Forecasting Tools: IMD now uses both the traditional statistical system and the MME system, which is based on Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCMs) from various global centers, including IMD’s own Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) model.
Forecast Granularity: These systems provide probabilistic forecasts of rainfall and temperature at various spatial and temporal scales, including all-India, regional, and sub-divisional levels.
Policy Relevance
The proven increase in the accuracy of monsoon prediction, achieved through the deployment of advanced computational models and the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) strategy, is of critical institutional relevance. This reliable data is the foundation for the Ministry of Earth Sciences’ (MoES) GIS-based Decision Support System (DSS) and end-to-end early warning systems. It directly enhances national preparedness by enabling timely, impact-based warnings for extreme weather events, safeguarding lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure, which is essential for effective disaster risk reduction.
What is the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) Forecasting System? The MME system is a modern weather prediction technique that improves forecast accuracy and confidence by combining the results from multiple independent numerical weather prediction models (like the CGCMs) run by different global and national climate centers. By averaging or weighting the outputs of several models, the MME system reduces the errors and inherent biases of any single model, yielding a more robust and reliable probabilistic forecast.
Relevant Question for Policy Stakeholders: How will the Ministry of Earth Sciences ensure that the improved accuracy of seasonal monsoon forecasts is effectively translated into actionable, site-specific warnings for farmers at the Panchayat level?
Follow the full news here: PARLIAMENT QUESTION: OPERATIONAL FORECASTING AND MONITORING MECHANISMS