Key Details
What: UNCTAD’s June 2026 Global Trade Update examines the growing strategic importance of Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and rare earth elements.
Why it matters: Rapid growth in clean energy technologies, batteries, electric vehicles and digital infrastructure is driving a sharp increase in demand for these minerals.
Key risk: Global supply chains remain highly concentrated, while governments are increasingly using export controls and industrial policies to secure domestic access.
India relevance: India is identified as an active participant in new international critical-mineral partnerships but remains dependent on imported minerals and processing capacity.
Policy challenge: Securing mineral supplies alone may not be sufficient unless accompanied by investments in domestic refining, processing and recycling capabilities.
Summary
The Gist: Critical Minerals Are Emerging as Strategic Economic Assets
UNCTAD’s June 2026 Global Trade Update argues that critical energy transition minerals (CETMs) are increasingly becoming central to industrial policy, trade strategy and economic security.
The rapid expansion of electric vehicles, battery storage systems, renewable energy technologies, semiconductors and digital infrastructure is creating unprecedented demand for minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and rare earth elements. As a result, governments are moving beyond market-based sourcing strategies and adopting more active approaches to securing supply chains.
Supply Chains Remain Highly Concentrated
A major concern highlighted in the report is the concentration of mining, processing and refining activities within a small number of countries.
Production of several critical minerals remains dominated by a handful of suppliers, while processing and refining capacity is even more concentrated. This creates significant vulnerabilities for countries dependent on imported minerals and intermediate products.
The report notes that many resource-rich developing countries continue to export raw materials, while the greatest value is captured in downstream processing, refining and manufacturing activities.
Export Restrictions Are Increasing
UNCTAD highlights a growing trend towards export-related restrictions, including licensing requirements, export taxes and outright export bans.
These measures are increasingly being used by mineral-producing countries to encourage domestic value addition and strengthen industrial capabilities. While such policies may support local industrialisation, they can also create supply disruptions and increase uncertainty for importing economies.
The report argues that access to critical minerals is becoming a strategic policy issue rather than a purely commercial one.
Competition for Critical Minerals Is Intensifying
Major importing economies, including the European Union, United States and Japan, are actively diversifying supply sources, investing in domestic capabilities and building international partnerships to improve supply-chain resilience.
India is identified as an active participant in this emerging network of critical mineral agreements and partnerships, reflecting growing competition among countries seeking access to future mineral supplies.
Implications for India
The report suggests that India’s energy transition and industrial ambitions will significantly increase demand for critical minerals over the coming decades.
While international partnerships can help secure access to raw materials, UNCTAD cautions that long-term competitiveness will depend on developing domestic capabilities across the value chain. Without investments in refining, processing and recycling, countries risk remaining dependent on imported intermediate products and capturing only a small share of economic value.
The report also warns that growing fragmentation of global trade rules and standards could increase compliance costs and complicate participation in international supply chains.
Policy Relevance
Diversifying Supply Sources Will Become Increasingly Important: India’s critical-mineral strategy may need to combine overseas resource acquisition with a broader network of international partnerships to reduce dependence on a small number of suppliers.
Processing and Refining Capacity Could Become the Next Strategic Priority: The report highlights that the greatest economic value is often generated after extraction. Developing domestic refining and processing capabilities may therefore be as important as securing mining assets abroad.
Recycling Can Improve Long-Term Mineral Security: As competition for primary mineral supplies intensifies, recycling and circular-economy systems can provide an additional source of strategic resilience.
Trade Fragmentation Could Create New Costs: The growing use of export restrictions, competing standards and bilateral mineral agreements may increase regulatory complexity for firms operating across multiple jurisdictions.
Multilateral Cooperation Remains Important: UNCTAD argues that transparent, predictable and non-discriminatory trade rules will be important for preventing excessive fragmentation of critical-mineral markets and ensuring stable access to materials needed for the global energy transition.
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