Key Details
Agricultural Resilience and Food Security in an Interconnected World: Lessons from Fertilisers draws together OECD research to explain how an input-market disruption can become a food-security problem.
Recent shocks: Urea prices peaked in April 2022 at more than three times their 2019 average. Prices spiked again in the first half of 2026 amid conflict in the Middle East, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Chinese fertiliser-export restrictions.
Concentrated production: In 2024, the five largest producing countries supplied 62% of nitrogen, 74% of phosphate and 84% of potash fertilisers globally.
Uneven effects: Scenario analysis cited by the brief indicates that reduced fertiliser affordability could have larger effects on cereal production and per-person calorie availability in Southern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. It does not provide a separate estimate for India.
Policy choices: The OECD emphasises supply diversification, more efficient nutrient use, open markets and support proportionate to the scale and duration of a shock.
A Price Spike Can Affect More Than One Harvest
Fertiliser production depends heavily on energy, while trade is concentrated among relatively few producers. A disruption can therefore raise farmers’ costs well beyond the area where it began. Farmers may apply less fertiliser or change what they plant; lower output can eventually feed into food prices.
Timing changes the risk. Stocks and purchases made before a price rise may protect one planting season. If disruption persists, those supplies run down and farmers can face another season of high prices or shortages. Switching to a more distant supplier may also add freight costs and uncertainty.
Supply Security Is Not Simply a Supplier Count
The concentration of global production makes alternative sources valuable, but the OECD argues that diversification must also account for transport routes, shipment timing and the ability to switch suppliers when markets tighten. Domestic fertiliser production may add options in some countries, though energy and mineral requirements mean it will not be feasible or economical everywhere.
The farm-level response also depends on existing fertiliser use. Excessive application can pollute air and water, while cutting use where soils already lack nutrients can damage yields and soil fertility. Soil testing, better-targeted application and suitable organic nutrient sources can improve efficiency, but require investment and changes in farming practice.
Policy Relevance
For India, the brief offers a framework for assessing exposure and response, not an India-specific forecast or a prescribed fertiliser policy. It points to three linked questions: how securely fertiliser can be procured before planting, which farmers are most exposed to a price rise, and where more efficient nutrient use can strengthen resilience without reducing yields.
Short-term help for farmers or vulnerable consumers may be warranted during a severe shock. The OECD’s broader caution is that such measures should address the immediate pressure without weakening open markets or investment in longer-term preparedness.
Follow the Full Policy Brief Here: Agricultural Resilience and Food Security in an Interconnected World: Lessons from Fertilisers