Key Details
NITI Aayog’s Trade Watch Quarterly: April–June (Q1) FY27 examines India’s position in a global metals and ores market worth approximately $2 trillion.
Indicator | Finding |
|---|---|
Metals and ores imports | $60.5 billion in 2025, up from $32.2 billion in 2015 |
Metals and ores exports | $36.8 billion in 2025 |
India’s share of global import demand | 1.8% |
Copper imports | $11.85 billion, up from $3.29 billion in 2015 |
Copper ores and concentrates | Imports meet approximately 96% of domestic demand |
Nickel, cobalt and lithium | 100% import-dependent |
Synthetic graphite | China supplied 52.3% of imports |
EU exposure | 39.3% of India’s iron and steel exports; 15.6% of aluminium exports |
Strength in Traditional Metals Masks Value-Chain Gaps
India has established production and export capabilities in iron and steel, aluminium, lead and zinc. Iron and steel, articles of iron and steel, and aluminium account for about 78% of the country’s metal exports.
Its presence is much smaller in several segments where global demand is expanding. Between 2015 and 2025, copper’s share of global metal imports rose from 12.4% to 16.5%, while aluminium increased from 14.3% to 16%. The share of iron and steel declined from 30.8% to 27.7%.
India supplied:
2.8% of global imports of articles of iron and steel;
2.6% of aluminium imports;
2.2% of iron and steel imports; and
only 1.1% of copper imports.
The opportunity therefore lies not only in extracting more minerals, but in developing refining, specialised alloys, advanced materials and downstream metal products.
Import Dependence Varies by Mineral
The nature of India’s exposure differs across minerals and stages of production.
Copper presents both a resource and processing challenge. India’s total copper import dependence is estimated at 57%, while imported ores and concentrates meet around 96% of domestic demand. Refined-copper self-sufficiency is approximately 35%.
Nickel, cobalt and lithium are fully import-dependent. Their supply chains are also concentrated globally:
China supplied 26.2% of India’s nickel imports.
Belgium and South Africa accounted for 85.7% of cobalt imports, although both may function partly as processing or trading hubs.
Argentina, Belgium and China supplied 80.7% of lithium oxide and hydroxide imports.
China accounted for 34.3% of lithium-carbonate imports.
Graphite illustrates the difference between total and supplier dependence. Overall import dependence is 28%, but China supplied 52.3% of synthetic graphite imports and dominates global anode manufacturing.
No single intervention can address these different exposures. Some minerals may support greater domestic extraction; others require overseas sourcing, long-term contracts, processing partnerships or recovery from used batteries and electronic waste.
Domestic Resources Have Not Yet Produced Competitive Supply Chains
India has strong production capabilities in iron ore, bauxite, chromite and zinc, but mining and processing remain constrained by:
incomplete geological information and limited exploration finance;
high royalties, levies and auction premiums;
delays in operationalising auctioned or lapsed mines;
forest and environmental clearance timelines;
costly mineral transport and logistics; and
limited domestic capacity in specialised metals and advanced materials.
Foreign investment also remains modest. Mining received cumulative FDI equity inflows of approximately $3.5 billion between 2000 and 2025, less than 0.5% of India’s total foreign equity inflows over the period.
Resource availability alone is therefore insufficient. A viable metals value chain also requires predictable project economics, processing technology, infrastructure and stable demand from downstream manufacturers.
Recycling Is Becoming a Supply-Security Instrument
The National Critical Mineral Mission covers exploration, mining, processing, recycling and overseas acquisition. Its targets include 1,200 domestic exploration projects, overseas mineral assets, four processing parks and the recovery of 400 kilotonnes of critical minerals from secondary sources by 2030–31.
The report identifies several obstacles to achieving that recovery:
fragmented collection of batteries and electronic waste;
weak material traceability;
insufficient feedstock for commercial recycling plants;
export of battery black mass before minerals are recovered domestically; and
limited support for technologies moving from pilots to commercial scale.
Recycling cannot eliminate import dependence in the near term, but it can provide a domestic secondary supply of copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite while reducing exposure to concentrated overseas markets.
Carbon Rules Are Changing Export Competitiveness
India’s steel production emits approximately 2.5–2.6 tonnes of carbon dioxide per tonne of crude steel, reflecting the sector’s dependence on coal. Its exposure to the European Union makes this commercially significant: nearly two-fifths of Indian iron and steel exports go to the EU.
Under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, the carbon embedded in specified imports carries a cost linked to the EU carbon market. Compliance therefore depends on credible measurement and verification as well as lower-emission production.
Indian exporters face constraints including expensive renewable electricity, restricted energy banking and limited access to accredited emissions-verification facilities. Cleaner production, renewable-energy access and reliable monitoring are consequently becoming conditions for maintaining market access—not solely environmental objectives.
The Wider Trade Picture
The metals assessment helps explain a feature visible in India’s aggregate trade data: exports are growing, but industrial expansion continues to raise demand for imported energy, electronics and raw materials.
During Q1 FY27, merchandise imports grew 19.8%, ahead of the 16% rise in exports. The pattern continued through August, when cumulative imports remained ahead of exports and widened the overall deficit. The April–August trade update provides the latest aggregate figures.
India’s $317 billion of digitally delivered services exports provide a contrasting strength, but a services surplus cannot substitute for secure access to the physical inputs required by manufacturing, infrastructure and the energy transition.
Policy Relevance
India’s mineral-security response needs to operate across different time horizons:
Near term — secure supply: Diversify suppliers, negotiate long-term offtake arrangements and acquire overseas assets where domestic production cannot expand quickly.
Medium term — retain more value: Increase refining, processing and recycling capacity so that imported ores, concentrates and secondary materials support domestic manufacturing rather than continued dependence on processed products.
Long term — compete in advanced and low-carbon materials: Build capabilities in specialised alloys, battery materials, aerospace metals and cleaner steel and aluminium production.
Success should be measured by more than the number of mines auctioned or overseas assets acquired. The relevant outcomes are reduced supplier concentration, commercially operating processing capacity, recovery of minerals from waste, higher domestic value addition and continued access to carbon-regulated export markets.
Follow the Full Report Here: Trade Watch Quarterly: April–June (Q1) FY27