World Trade Report 2025: AI to Boost Trade by Nearly 40% by 2040 if Gaps Are Bridged

SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth | SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
Institutions: Ministry of Commerce & Industry | Ministry of Electronics & IT | NITI Aayog

The World Trade Organization’s World Trade Report 2025 explores how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping global trade. WTO simulations estimate that AI could raise global trade volumes by 34–37% by 2040, with the largest gains in digitally deliverable services (42%). Global GDP could rise by 12–13%, driven by productivity growth and reduced trade costs. Nearly 90% of firms using AI report tangible trade benefits, from smoother customs clearance to better risk management.

However, the report warns of widening divides. In a “business-as-usual” scenario, high-income economies see income gains of 14% versus 8% for low-income countries. But if digital infrastructure gaps are addressed, income growth could converge to 11–15% across economies. Trade in AI-enabling goods is already valued at US$ 2.3 trillion, underscoring global interdependence. The report also highlights uneven adoption: only 41% of small firms use AI, compared to over 60% of large firms.

For India, these findings underline both opportunity and risk. With trade in services and digital goods central to its growth model, India can leverage AI to expand exports and improve competitiveness. But without urgent investment in digital infrastructure, AI-related regulation, and MSME capacity, the benefits could remain concentrated among larger firms and advanced economies.

Follow the full report here: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/wtr25_e.pdf

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