Key Details
The World Bank Group’s Commodity Markets Outlook – October 2026 forecasts international commodity prices. Its baseline assumes that major conflict-related supply disruptions do not intensify and that some energy and grain shipments recover in 2027.
Commodity Group | 2026 Forecast | 2027 Forecast |
|---|---|---|
Overall commodity price index | +23% | −7% |
Energy | +32% | −12% |
Food | +10% | +7% |
Fertilisers | +14% | −12% |
Metals and minerals | +25% | −3% |
Brent crude is forecast to average US$91 a barrel in 2026 and US$79 in 2027. In India, coal demand is projected to rise 4.2% to 1.35 billion tonnes in 2026, while coal production is projected to increase 1.2% to a record 1.09 billion tonnes. The report also identifies India among countries where oil consumption declined amid disruptions to petrochemical production.
Energy Supply Falls Sharply, Even as Oil Use Declines
The Middle East conflict is projected to reduce global oil production by 5.2% in 2026. High prices, disrupted industrial activity and growing electric-vehicle use are also expected to cut consumption by 2.5%. Supply is nevertheless falling faster than demand, drawing down inventories and leaving the market exposed to further disruption.
A recovery in crude shipments underpins the lower Brent forecast for 2027. Finished fuels may remain tighter for longer: diesel and jet-fuel prices have risen faster than crude because refinery disruptions have constrained their supply. If Middle Eastern and Russian oil disruptions persist, the report’s adverse scenario puts Brent at US$105 a barrel in 2027, rather than US$79 in its baseline.
Food Prices Defy the Wider Decline Forecast for 2027
Food is the exception to the projected fall in the overall commodity index. Disrupted Black Sea grain shipments, high energy and agricultural input costs, and a potentially very strong El Niño are putting pressure on production and trade. Grain prices are forecast to rise about 9% in 2027; the report identifies risks to rice harvests in major Asian exporters, including India, and to sugar production.
Global grain supplies remain relatively strong, which should limit the scale of price increases in the baseline. But a severe combination of conflict and weather shocks could push 2027 food commodity prices above their 2022 level. Lower forecast energy and fertiliser prices next year therefore do not guarantee relief across food markets.
India Is a Consumer, Producer and Influential Food Trader
India’s projected rise in coal demand reflects stronger electricity and industrial needs alongside weak hydropower output during heatwaves. Its coal production is also expected to grow, though by a smaller percentage than demand. The report expects India to remain a source of coal-demand growth in 2027, while noting that faster solar and wind expansion could reduce coal use and imports relative to its forecast.
India also affects world food prices through its trade decisions. Discussing the risk of export restrictions during shortages, the report cites research estimating that India’s 2023 ban on non-basmati rice exports raised world rice prices by 35%. The example shows why responses to domestic crop risks can have consequences beyond India’s borders.
Metals Demand May Keep Prices High After Supply Disruptions Ease
Aluminium, copper and tin have reached record prices amid supply constraints. Some of those constraints may ease, but investment in power grids, renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres is expected to sustain demand. The World Bank consequently forecasts only a modest decline in its metals and minerals index in 2027.
Its special analysis finds that commodity-price volatility becomes more interconnected during global stress. In a model of 15 traded commodities, about one-third of volatility is associated with shocks in other commodity markets. These measured links are useful for tracking risks across energy, food and metals, but do not by themselves prove that a price movement in one market caused another.
Policy Relevance
The divergence between easing energy prices and rising food commodity prices in the 2027 baseline matters for inflation and food-security planning. For India, fuel and fertiliser import costs need to be tracked alongside crop conditions; the headline commodity index alone could conceal continuing food-price pressure. International price forecasts, however, do not translate directly into Indian inflation.
India’s projected growth in both coal demand and domestic production calls for monitoring actual power demand, hydropower output and imports together. Sustained demand for metals also makes reliable access to inputs important for power infrastructure and manufacturing, even if the overall commodity index falls.
The report highlights a further trade-off in responding to food shortages: export restrictions can amplify world price spikes. Decisions intended to protect Indian consumers must therefore consider domestic availability and their effects on importing countries.
Follow the Full Report Here: World Bank Group, Commodity Markets Outlook – October 2026