Key Details
The Emissions Gap Report 2026 compares current policies and national climate pledges with the emissions cuts needed to limit future warming.
Measure | Report Finding |
|---|---|
Global greenhouse gas emissions, 2025 | 58.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent; too much uncertainty to conclude that emissions fell from 2024 |
Warming under current policies | 2.8°C by 2100, with warming continuing thereafter |
Warming if national pledges are fulfilled and similar efforts continue | 2.6°C by 2100 |
Cuts needed for the report’s lowest 1.5°C-overshoot pathway | 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, relative to 2025 |
Cuts under full implementation of current pledges | 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035 |
India’s 2025 emissions, excluding land use | About 4.5 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, or 3.1 tonnes per person, against a global average of 6.4 tonnes |
The Goal Has Shifted from Avoiding Overshoot to Limiting It
UNEP concludes that holding warming to 1.5°C with no or only a very small temporary overshoot is no longer achievable. Its new pathway instead limits peak warming to roughly 1.7–1.8°C and offers about a 50% chance of returning to 1.5°C or below by 2100. The required emissions cuts must begin immediately. The pathway also depends on removing roughly 320 billion tonnes of CO₂ from the atmosphere over this century—a scale whose feasibility remains uncertain.
The 2035 gap is 16 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent between emissions expected if countries fully deliver their conditional pledges and the level needed for that return pathway. More countries have submitted 2035 pledges since last year, but collectively those pledges have not produced cuts close to the required scale.
A Flat Global Total Does Not Yet Signal a Turning Point
Estimated global emissions in 2025 were close to their 2024 level. That apparent pause is not evidence of a confirmed peak: fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions continued to rise, while a fall in emissions from land-use change and forestry offset that increase. The land-use estimate is particularly uncertain.
There is progress to build on. Solar and wind power have expanded much faster than anticipated a decade ago, and the report reviews evidence that implemented climate policies have reduced emissions. But total fossil-fuel energy use is still rising, and the pace of change across most areas agreed in the first global stocktake remains insufficient.
India Can Meet Its Targets While Total Emissions Grow
UNEP assesses India as likely to meet its 2030 targets under existing policies and to meet its new 2035 emissions-intensity target. That target calls for emissions per unit of GDP to fall 47% from 2005 levels. It is not a commitment to cut total emissions: if the economy grows, emissions can rise even while each unit of output becomes less carbon-intensive.
The report projects higher absolute emissions in 2035 than in 2030 under India’s pledge—the only such trajectory among the G20 members with comparable new 2035 targets. This needs to be read alongside India’s substantially lower per-person emissions than those of most other large emitters. UNEP also notes India’s expanding Carbon Credit Trading Scheme and rooftop-solar programme, while identifying China and India as the location of 95% of coal-power capacity currently under construction worldwide.
Policy Relevance
The UNEP report puts two measures of progress side by side for India: emissions intensity captures cleaner growth, while absolute emissions show whether that growth is moving towards an eventual peak. Tracking both gives policymakers and the public a clearer account of what meeting the 2035 pledge would — and would not — achieve.
The power-sector choices are consequential. Renewable expansion and carbon-market development can lower emissions relative to economic activity, but new coal capacity may shape generation and investment for years. The report’s global finding also makes international finance and technology support relevant to the pace at which countries, including India, can strengthen their transitions.
Follow the Full Report Here: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return