Key Details
The Outlook positions India as the largest contributor to future global agricultural production while warning that sustaining this role will require addressing productivity, import dependence and input-cost vulnerabilities.
Key Area | Outlook | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
Global Production | Agricultural output projected to grow 13% by 2035 | Growth driven mainly by productivity improvements |
India’s Contribution | India expected to account for 25.6% of global production growth | Largest contributor worldwide |
Food Demand | India and Southeast Asia projected to generate 39% of global consumption growth | Rising domestic demand will reshape production priorities |
Input Risks | Middle East conflict raises energy and fertiliser costs | Geopolitical shocks increasingly affect agriculture |
Vegetable Oils | Imports projected to reach 21 million tonnes | Growing import dependence |
Dairy | India remains world’s largest milk producer | Smallholder dairy remains a major strength |
Productivity | Yield gaps persist across several commodities | Technology adoption becomes increasingly important |
Summary
The Gist: India Becomes Central to the Global Food System
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035 projects 13% growth in global agricultural production over the next decade, driven largely by productivity gains rather than expansion of cultivated land.
Within this outlook, India emerges as the single largest contributor to future global agricultural growth, accounting for 25.6% of additional production while, together with Southeast Asia, driving 39% of global food consumption growth.
At the same time, the report argues that agriculture is becoming increasingly exposed to global geopolitical risks. Higher energy and fertiliser prices linked to the 2026 Middle East conflict illustrate how disruptions outside agriculture can affect production costs, farm incomes and food prices.
India’s Growth Story Is Also Its Policy Challenge
The report paints a mixed picture of India’s agricultural future.
Major strengths
25.6% of global production growth expected to come from India.
Continues as the world’s largest milk producer.
Remains among the leading producers of rice, wheat and pulses.
Accounts for roughly one-quarter of global cotton production growth.
Rising incomes continue to diversify food demand beyond cereals.
Emerging structural pressures
Vegetable oil imports projected to reach 21 million tonnes by 2035.
Persistent productivity gaps relative to leading agricultural producers.
Greater exposure to volatile fertiliser and energy prices.
Expanding ethanol production will require balancing fuel and food security.
Farm labour productivity remains low despite gradual improvement.
Together, these trends suggest that India’s future agricultural performance will depend less on expanding cultivated area and more on raising productivity, improving resource efficiency and strengthening resilience against global shocks.
A Long-Term Outlook Rather Than a Forecast
The report uses the Aglink-Cosimo modelling framework developed jointly by the OECD and FAO to simulate agricultural markets over the next decade. Rather than predicting a single outcome, the model estimates how production, consumption, trade and prices could evolve under different assumptions, while also examining how shocks—such as higher energy prices—could affect food systems.
Policy Priorities Emerging from the Outlook
Sector | Projected Opportunity | Principal Challenge | Emerging Policy Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
Cereals & Staples | India remains a major contributor to global rice, wheat and pulse production | Yield gaps and climate stress | Accelerate climate-resilient seeds, precision irrigation and productivity-enhancing R&D |
Dairy & Livestock | Continued global leadership in milk production | Low per-animal productivity | Expand veterinary services, breeding programmes, feed systems and cold-chain infrastructure |
Oilseeds & Vegetable Oils | Strong and growing domestic demand | Imports projected to reach 21 million tonnes | Strengthen oilseed production, processing capacity and crop diversification |
Biofuels & Ethanol | Growing maize-based ethanol market | Competition between food, feed and fuel | Develop safeguards that balance biofuel expansion with food security objectives |
Farm Incomes | Productivity gains can improve rural livelihoods | Input-cost volatility and low labour productivity | Improve mechanisation, input-use efficiency, extension services and risk-management systems |
What is the Aglink-Cosimo Model?
The Aglink-Cosimo model is a joint OECD-FAO simulation model that projects long-term agricultural production, consumption, trade and prices by integrating country-level supply and demand with global commodity markets. It helps policymakers assess how structural trends and external shocks may influence agriculture over time.
Follow the Full Release Here: OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026‑2035