Key Details
Platform: Published in Finance & Development, the IMF’s flagship magazine on global economic and development issues.
Author: Written by N.K. Singh, economist, former policymaker, and Chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister.
Core Argument: Middle powers can play a larger role in shaping global governance as traditional multilateral institutions face increasing geopolitical fragmentation.
Strategic Tool: The article advocates plurilateral coalitions—small, flexible partnerships built around specific objectives rather than broad ideological blocs.
India’s Position: India is presented as a natural middle-power actor, supported by its status as the world’s fourth-largest economy and sustained economic growth.
Key Challenges: Energy security, climate finance, industrial overcapacity, demographic transitions, and the AI-driven technology divide.
Central Message: Influence in the emerging global order will depend increasingly on a country’s ability to build coalitions and shape rules, not merely on economic size or military power.
Summary
From Multilateralism to Plurilateralism
Writing in the June 2026 edition of Finance & Development, N.K. Singh argues that the global economy is entering a period of fragmentation in which traditional multilateral institutions face increasing strain from geopolitical rivalry, trade restrictions, sanctions, industrial subsidies, and technology competition.
In this environment, Singh suggests that countries such as India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and other middle powers have an opportunity to play a larger role in global governance. Rather than relying exclusively on universal institutions, these countries can build plurilateral coalitions—smaller, issue-specific partnerships focused on shared interests in trade, climate finance, technology, energy security, or development.
India’s Expanding Strategic Space
Singh argues that India’s growing economic weight creates new diplomatic opportunities. India has emerged as the world’s fourth-largest economy, supported by sustained growth, infrastructure investment, and poverty reduction.
However, he contends that influence in the emerging global order will depend less on economic size alone and more on the ability to build coalitions across competing geopolitical blocs. This represents a modern adaptation of non-alignment: not neutrality between rival powers, but pragmatic cooperation based on overlapping interests.
Four Strategic Challenges
The article identifies four major issues that middle powers must address collectively:
Energy security and climate finance, particularly for countries vulnerable to imported fuel shocks and climate risks.
Industrial overcapacity and trade fragmentation, which are driving new tariffs, subsidies, and supply-chain tensions.
Demographic divergence, with ageing populations in advanced economies and younger workforces in countries such as India and many African nations.
The AI and digital divide, which risks widening technological and income gaps between countries.
Singh argues that these challenges increasingly require cooperation among middle-income economies rather than exclusive reliance on existing great-power institutions.
Alternative Financing and Institutional Innovation
The article also highlights the importance of strengthening institutions such as the New Development Bank (NDB)and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). These institutions can provide additional channels for infrastructure and climate financing at a time when global governance systems are becoming more contested and politically fragmented.
Policy Relevance
Coalition-Building Is Becoming a Strategic Capability: The article suggests that influence in the emerging global economy will increasingly depend on a country’s ability to convene partners around specific issues rather than simply its economic or military size.
Climate Finance Gaps May Drive New South-South Partnerships: With developing countries requiring substantially more climate financing than current flows provide, middle powers may need to create new financing arrangements and institutions to support energy transitions and climate adaptation.
Demographic Advantages Require Employment Creation: India’s relatively young workforce could become a major strategic advantage, but only if supported by sustained job creation, skilling systems, and labour-market integration.
Technology Governance Is Becoming a Geoeconomic Issue: The spread of AI and digital technologies raises questions about standards, infrastructure, and access. The article argues that middle powers have an opportunity to shape these emerging frameworks rather than simply adopt rules created elsewhere.
Global Rule-Making Is Becoming More Distributed: Perhaps the article’s central message is that international influence increasingly comes from participation in rule-setting coalitions. As Singh concludes, middle powers must ensure they are “at the table, not on the menu.”
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