Key Details
The WMO outlook points to a higher risk of hotter and drier conditions across the Indian subcontinent during August–October, although actual rainfall could vary considerably between regions.
Area | What The Outlook Says |
|---|---|
Temperature | Most of the Indian subcontinent is more likely to experience above-normal temperatures. |
Rainfall | Below-normal rainfall is more likely across the region, with broad agreement among forecasting models. |
Why The Period Matters | August–October covers the latter part of the southwest monsoon and the transition to the post-monsoon season. |
What It Does Not Predict | The outlook does not say that India will experience drought or that every state will receive less rain. |
Main Climate Driver | A strong El Niño is developing in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to strengthen through October. |
Expected Peak | El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest intensity in November 2026. |
Indian Ocean Conditions | A positive Indian Ocean Dipole—an east–west difference in Indian Ocean temperatures—is also expected to develop. |
The Outlook Points To A Hotter And Drier Three-Month Period
The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update for August–September–October 2026 indicates that the Indian subcontinent is more likely to experience above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall during the three-month period.
This does not mean that every part of India will be hotter and drier throughout the season. The outlook describes the average conditions considered most likely across a large region. Individual states could experience very different rainfall totals, and short periods of heavy rain may still occur within an otherwise drier season.
The timing makes the forecast important for India. August and September are critical months for standing kharif crops and reservoir replenishment, while October marks the monsoon’s withdrawal from much of the country and the beginning of the post-monsoon season in the south.
A combination of lower rainfall and higher temperatures could increase crop-water requirements, slow reservoir recovery and prolong demand for irrigation and electricity. Whether these pressures materialise will depend on the timing and geographical distribution of rainfall.
A Rapidly Strengthening El Niño Is Driving The Forecast
El Niño develops when a large part of the tropical Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm. This warming can alter wind and rainfall patterns around the world and is often associated with weaker monsoon conditions over the Indian subcontinent.
The current event has strengthened quickly. The WMO’s main measure of Pacific warming rose from 0.5°C above normal in April to 1.6°C above normal in June. It is forecast to average approximately 2.9°C above normal during August–October, placing it firmly in the strong El Niño range.
Forecasting centres broadly agree that El Niño will continue strengthening through the season and peak in November. This agreement increases confidence that a strong event is developing, but it does not remove uncertainty about its effects on rainfall in particular parts of India.
Indian Ocean Conditions Provide A Second Influence
The WMO also expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to develop. This occurs when the western tropical Indian Ocean becomes warmer relative to the eastern part near Indonesia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole can influence rainfall over countries surrounding the ocean, including India. Its effect, however, cannot be read in isolation from El Niño, monsoon winds and regional weather systems.
The WMO combines information from these expected ocean conditions in its seasonal forecast. Even with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole developing alongside El Niño, the overall result continues to favour below-normal rainfall across the Indian subcontinent.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate pattern that develops when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm for several months. This warming changes winds and atmospheric circulation, influencing temperature and rainfall across different parts of the world.
For India, El Niño is often associated with a weaker southwest monsoon because it can disrupt the movement of moisture and alter the circulation that supports monsoon rainfall. The relationship is not automatic: some El Niño years have produced near-normal rainfall, while regional weather systems and Indian Ocean conditions can strengthen or offset its effects.
El Niño should therefore be understood as an important risk factor, not a direct prediction of drought. Its strength, timing and interaction with other climate conditions determine how strongly India’s rainfall is affected.
Policy Relevance
The outlook provides a basis for anticipatory planning while leaving room for responses to be adjusted as national and local forecasts become available.
Agricultural preparedness: The combination of rainfall and temperature risks could affect standing crops, irrigation demand and the timing of agricultural operations during the latter monsoon months.
Water management: Reservoir storage, inflows, groundwater conditions and basin-level rainfall will be more informative for allocation decisions than the regional seasonal signal alone.
Heat planning: Above-normal temperatures through October could extend heat exposure and increase cooling, irrigation and electricity demand beyond the peak-summer period.
Forecast coordination: The WMO outlook provides the global and regional climate signal, while IMD forecasts are needed to translate it into shorter-range and geographically specific information.
Risk communication: A higher probability of below-normal rainfall should not be communicated as a certain drought or a uniformly weak monsoon across India.
Follow The Full Report Here: Global Seasonal Climate Update for August–September–October 2026