Key Details
Two WMO updates connect the rapidly strengthening El Niño with the likely direction of global and Indian seasonal conditions.
Outlook | Principal finding |
|---|---|
El Niño status | El Niño was firmly established and strengthening by mid-August 2026 |
Duration | WMO assigns a near-100% probability of its persistence during September–November 2026 and December 2026–February 2027 |
Expected strength | The event is forecast to reach very strong intensity, peaking towards the end of 2026 |
India temperature outlook | The Indian subcontinent shows a large increase in the probability of above-normal temperatures, with moderate-to-strong agreement among forecast models |
India rainfall outlook | The region shows an enhanced probability of below-normal rainfall, supported by high model consistency |
Indian Ocean influence | A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to develop, with a September–November seasonal mean value of approximately 0.9°C |
Nature of forecast | The projections indicate the most likely seasonal category, not the exact temperature or rainfall at a particular place |
India Enters the Post-Monsoon Period with a Warmer, Drier Signal
The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update for September–November 2026 places the Indian subcontinent among regions with an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures. It also identifies a consistent regional tilt towards below-normal rainfall.
This is the clearest policy-facing implication of the two updates. The outlook covers the closing phase of the southwest monsoon, the post-monsoon period and the transition from kharif harvesting to rabi preparation, making the eventual timing and geographical distribution of rainfall as important as the seasonal total.
El Niño Is Expected to Remain Exceptionally Strong
The accompanying WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 finds that El Niño is already established and has an almost certain likelihood of continuing into early 2027. The seasonal climate update projects the average Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly at about 3.6°C during September–November, with intensification expected to peak in November–December.
The strength and alignment of ocean various forecasts give the WMO high confidence in the persistence persistence of El Niño. What remains less certain is how that global signal will translate into conditions within individual countries and regions.
Indian Ocean Conditions Could Alter the Outcome
The WMO also expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, in which the western equatorial Indian Ocean becomes relatively warmer than the eastern part. Conditions in the Indian Ocean can reinforce, weaken or modify the effects normally associated with El Niño.
India’s weather cannot therefore be read directly from Pacific Ocean temperatures. The combined outlook establishes an elevated likelihood of heat and rainfall departures, while IMD’s national, monthly and subnational forecastsremain necessary for operational decisions.
Seasonal Probability Is Not a Local Weather Prediction
“Above normal” or “below normal” means that a season is more likely to fall within the upper or lower third of its historical distribution at a particular location. It does not mean that every week or district will experience the same conditions.
The WMO also cautions that seasonal forecasting is less precise than short-range weather forecasting. A drier seasonal signal can still include episodes of heavy rainfall, while an above-normal temperature outlook does not specify the timing or duration of individual heat events.
Policy Relevance
The combined outlook matters because it identifies a shared seasonal risk across agriculture, water, energy and disaster management before its local effects become fully visible.
Decisions that cannot wait for the season to end
Agriculture: Central and State agriculture departments may need updated crop advisories for kharif harvesting and rabi sowing, particularly where rainfall timing affects soil moisture, irrigation demand or planting decisions.
Water management: Reservoir operations and urban water planning will need to consider the possibility of lower seasonal replenishment alongside higher temperatures, while retaining flexibility for short periods of intense rainfall.
Power and health: Warmer conditions can raise electricity demand and increase heat exposure. Power utilities, health departments and local governments need IMD’s shorter-range updates to determine when and where preparedness measures should be activated.
The institutional challenge
The WMO forecast provides an early global and regional signal; IMD and State agencies must convert it into location-specific guidance. Coordination is particularly important where agricultural, reservoir and power-sector decisions are taken by different authorities using different forecast horizons.
The value of the warning will lie in whether agencies establish conditional responses tied to updated forecasts, rather than treating either El Niño or the three-month outlook as a certain prediction.
Relevant Question for Policy Stakeholders: Which crop, reservoir and power-management decisions should be prepared now for a warmer and potentially drier September–November period, and what IMD forecast thresholds will trigger their implementation?
Follow the Full Updates Here: WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026
Global Seasonal Climate Update: September–November 2026