OECD technical paper Using climate projections to assess increasing student exposure to high temperatures establishes a methodology to assess the rising risk of extreme heat exposure for students by the year 2050.
Leveraging high-resolution climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and school location data, the study identifies that thousands of schools across 13 analysed countries—including the U.S., France, and Chile—will face significantly higher temperature extremes. The framework operates on the theory that rising temperatures pose risk to a student's future well-being and their cognitive ability to learn. By mapping granular climate data against educational infrastructure, the OECD provides a functional roadmap for policymakers to adapt school systems through structural cooling, modified school calendars, and heat-health action plans.
Key Pillars of the Student Heat Exposure Framework
Granular CMIP6 Projections: Utilising high-fidelity climate models to identify local "heat-related extremes" at the school-district level.
Institutional Vulnerability Mapping: Cross-referencing school location data with temperature projections to calculate the exact number of students at risk by 2050.
Learning-Heat Impact Analysis: Assessing how physiological heat stress affects concentration, cognitive performance, and overall educational outcomes.
Structural Adaptation Strategies: Evaluating the need for school building retrofits, such as "cool roofs," green insulation, and improved ventilation systems.
Policy Calibration: Integrating climate projections into the long-term planning of educational ministries to ensure infrastructure resilience.
Multi-Country Benchmarking: Comparing adaptation readiness across 13 OECD economies to identify scalable best practices for student protection.
What is "CMIP6" in Educational Planning? The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) consists of advanced global climate models that provide standardized projections of future weather patterns. In the context of education, it acts as a primary mechanic for "future-proofing" school systems. By using CMIP6 data, policymakers can move beyond historical weather averages to anticipate the specific heat-stress thresholds schools will reach by 2050. This high-fidelity foresight is a prerequisite for making informed investments in school infrastructure today, preventing a future scenario where extreme heat makes classrooms unhabitable or detrimental to learning.
Policy Relevance: India’s Heat-Resilient Schools
While the report focuses on 13 OECD and partner countries (excluding India), its methodology offers a functional framework for the Indian context:
Operationalising Heat-Health Action Plans: The OECD’s methodology acts as a primary mechanic for the Ministry of Education to integrate heat-risk mapping into the "PM SHRI" schools initiative.
Internalising Granular Projections: Utilising CMIP6 data, as demonstrated in the report, is a functional prerequisite for the IMD to provide school-specific "Heat Alerts" for the Indo-Gangetic Plain.
Bypassing Learning Losses: Implementing the structural adaptations suggested by the OECD serves as a prerequisite for ensuring that "Greeshma-kal" (summer) learning losses are not exacerbated by extreme heat.
Link to National Education Policy (NEP) 2020: Aligning school infrastructure with climate resilience is a foundational step for India to ensure that its "Quality Education" goals are not derailed by climate-induced disruptions.
Follow the Full Technical Paper Here: OECD: Using climate projections to assess increasing student exposure to high temperatures
