WMO & IRENA: Global Renewable Energy Transition Faces Compounded Climate Risks in 2024
SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy | SDG 13: Climate Action
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy | Ministry of Power
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) have released the 2024 Year in Review report titled ‘Climate-driven Global Renewable Energy Resources and Energy Demand’, detailing the critical impact of climate variability on global energy systems. In 2024, global renewable capacity grew by a record 582 GW, yet the pace remains insufficient to meet the COP28 target of tripling capacity by 2030. This growth occurred during the warmest year on record, with global average temperatures reaching 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, driven by long-term warming and a strong El Niño event.
Impact on Generation Potential
Solar and Wind Anomalies: While Southern Africa and South America saw gains in solar and wind potential, global solar capacity factor (CF) anomalies were modest at +0.2%, and wind CF anomalies stood at +1%.
Hydropower Deficits: Significant regional swings occurred in hydropower; Central America and Mexico saw variations of up to 20%, while Southern Africa faced ongoing drought-induced deficits.
Global Energy Demand: Driven by extreme heat, the global energy demand proxy rose 4% above the 1991–2020 baseline, with heat-sensitive regions exceeding +20% anomalies.
India’s Energy Transition Challenges
Compounded Strain: In 2024, India experienced a significant rise in energy demand—notably a +16% anomaly in October—coinciding with deficits in both wind and solar power capacity factors.
Hydropower Stability: India’s 52 GW hydropower capacity maintained a mild positive anomaly across 2022–2024, offering a degree of stability against the fluctuations seen in other renewable sources.
Forecasting Potential: The report presents the first evaluation of seasonal forecasts for energy indicators, showing skill in predicting temperature-driven demand spikes and solar output shifts across Africa and Asia.
What is the ‘Capacity Factor (CF)’ and why is it essential for renewable energy assessment? It is an operational metric representing the ratio of a power plant’s actual electrical energy output over a specific period to its maximum potential output if it had operated at full nameplate capacity continuously. In the context of this report, Capacity Factor is used as a direct indicator of how climate variability—such as changes in wind speed or solar irradiance—affects the real-world generation potential of renewable assets. For instance, a negative CF anomaly indicates that climatic conditions (like increased cloud cover or lower wind speeds) led to lower-than-average productivity compared to the long-term historical baseline, regardless of how much new capacity was installed.
Policy Relevance
Integrating climate intelligence into national energy planning is essential for ensuring system reliability and achieving updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
Strategic Impact for India:
Mandating Demand-Responsive Grids: The +16% surge in India’s energy demand underscores the urgent need for the Ministry of Power to invest in demand-side management and increased cooling infrastructure.
Diversifying the Energy Mix: India’s consistent wind and solar deficits in 2024 highlight that tripling capacity requires not just more installations, but diversification across geographies to mitigate localized climate risks.
Mainstreaming Seasonal Forecasts: Adopting ECMWF-style seasonal forecasting could help Indian utilities anticipate monsoon disruptions and manage reservoir levels more effectively for the nation’s 52 GW hydro fleet.
Closing Operational Data Gaps: To improve resilience, India must close gaps in key variables like wind speed at hub height and standardized solar irradiance data through harmonized regional platforms.
Follow the full report here: 2024 Year in Review: Climate-driven Global Renewable Energy Resources and Energy Demand