RBI Releases Results of Forward-Looking Surveys: Rising Confidence, Softer Inflation Outlook, Stronger Growth Forecasts
SDG 8: Decent Work & Economic Growth | SDG 9: Industry, Innovation & Infrastructure
Institutions: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) | Ministry of Finance
The Reserve Bank of India has released results of eight forward-looking surveys in September–October 2025. Together, they provide a snapshot of household sentiment, inflation expectations, manufacturing and services outlook, credit conditions, and professional forecasts shaping India’s economic trajectory.
Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations:
Urban Consumer Confidence Survey (UCCS): The Current Situation Index (CSI) rose slightly to 96.9 in September 2025, while the Future Expectations Index (FEI) improved to 125.0, reflecting optimism about the year ahead. Urban households expect inflationary pressures to ease.
Rural Consumer Confidence Survey (RCCS): Sentiment strengthened further into the optimistic zone, with CSI rising to 100.9. The FEI also improved, highlighting rural optimism.
Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH): The perceived median inflation edged up to 7.4%, but the share of rural households expecting higher prices over a one-year horizon declined, signalling softening expectations.
Business & Professional Outlook:
Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF, 96th round): GDP growth forecast for FY 2025–26 revised upward to 6.8% (from 6.5%), while the inflation projection was lowered to 2.6%.
Industrial Outlook Survey (Q2:2025–26): Manufacturers retained an optimistic business outlook.
Services & Infrastructure Outlook Survey (Q2:2025–26): Companies in services and infrastructure expressed positive forward-looking sentiment.
OBICUS (Q1:2025–26): Tracked order books, inventories, and capacity utilisation in manufacturing, serving as an early signal of demand–supply balance.
Bank Lending Survey (Q2:2025–26): Assessed banks’ views on credit demand and supply; specific round highlights were not disclosed in the press release.
The combined surveys show rising household confidence, easing inflation expectations, and a strengthened growth forecast, suggesting space for demand-led momentum. At the same time, order book and credit indicators will need close tracking to ensure macro stability. These surveys serve as inputs for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), providing ground-level evidence for interest rate and liquidity management.
What are RBI’s Forward-Looking Surveys? → A set of structured surveys run by the RBI that capture household, business, bank and forecaster expectations about the economy. Unlike backward-looking data (GDP, CPI), they provide near-term signals on consumer confidence, inflation outlook, manufacturing and services demand, credit flow, and growth forecasts. These insights are vital for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to judge whether demand, inflation and financial conditions are moving in line with policy goals.
What is the MPC? → The Monetary Policy Committee is a six-member body of the Reserve Bank of India that decides the country’s benchmark policy interest rate (repo rate). Its mandate is to keep inflation within the 4% ±2% target band set by the Government of India, while also supporting growth. The MPC meets every two months, using data and forward-looking surveys to balance price stability with economic momentum.
What is OBICUS? → The Order Books, Inventories and Capacity Utilisation Survey monitors manufacturers’ operational performance. It matters because capacity use and inventory levels are leading indicators of investment cycles and price pressures.
Follow the full update here: RBI Press Release (PR 61339)
Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH) – September 2025
Industrial Outlook Survey of the Manufacturing Sector for Q2:2025-26
Survey of Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators – Round1 96th