OPEC Outlook Projects India As Largest Driver Of Global Energy Demand Growth Through 2050
SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy | SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth | SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas | Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
According to the World Oil Outlook 2025 presented by OPEC at India Energy Week 2026, India is projected to be the largest contributor to global oil demand growth until 2050. The report estimates that India alone will add 8.2 million barrels per day to oil demand by 2050, fueled by expansion in transportation, petrochemicals, and industrial sectors. While global oil demand is expected to reach nearly 123 million barrels per day by mid-century, the growth is increasingly concentrated in non-OECD regions, with India serving as the primary stable anchor.
Doubling of Primary Energy Demand The outlook suggests that India’s total primary energy demand will almost double, rising from approximately 22 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2024 to 43.6 million by 2050. During the same period, global primary energy demand is projected to increase by 23%. India’s dominant role is supported by its status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, with an average annual GDP growth of 5.8% projected through 2050. Consequently, India’s share of global GDP is expected to jump from 8% in 2024 to 17% by 2050.
Demographics and Investment Requirements Demographic trends reinforce India’s central position, as it remains the world’s most populous country anchoring global consumption. To meet this rising global demand and offset natural decline rates, OPEC underscores a massive need for sustained investment. Cumulative oil-related investment requirements are estimated at USD 18.2 trillion between 2025 and 2050, with nearly USD 15 trillion specifically required in the upstream sector to ensure energy security.
What is the distinction between “Primary Energy Demand” and “Oil Demand” in this outlook? Primary Energy Demand refers to the total energy content of all raw energy sources (including coal, gas, renewables, and nuclear) before they are transformed into secondary forms like electricity. Oil Demand is a specific subset of this, focusing exclusively on petroleum products. The OPEC report highlights that while India is diversifying its energy basket, oil remains a central pillar of its industrial and transport growth, accounting for nearly 20% of the total projected global oil demand increase.
Policy Relevance
The OPEC projections highlight critical strategic priorities for India’s long-term energy planning and economic security.
Energy Security vs. Transition: The doubling of energy demand confirms that India must balance its Net Zero 2070 goals with the immediate reality of high hydrocarbon dependence for industrial growth.
Economic Influence: India’s projected 17% share of global GDP provides significant leverage in international energy negotiations and pricing dialogues.
Upstream Investment Necessity: The USD 18.2 trillion global investment requirement underscores the need for India to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) into its own exploration and production sectors to reduce import reliance.
Relevant Question for Policy Stakeholders: How can India’s energy policy be calibrated to ensure that the projected doubling of energy demand is met without compromising the country’s international commitments to carbon emission reductions?
Follow the full news here: IEW 2026: OPEC Outlook Projects India as the Largest Driver of Global Energy Demand Growth