SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy | SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure | SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities | SDG 13: Climate Action
NITI Aayog | Ministry of Power | Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC) | Ministry of Finance
Developed through ten Inter-Ministerial Working Groups (IMWGs), the NITI Aayog study report, Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: An Overview outlines India’s dual ambition of becoming a USD 30 trillion developed economy by 2047 (Viksit Bharat) and achieving Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070.
To ensure these goals are mathematically consistent and technically feasible, NITI Aayog utilized a sophisticated Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) framework. This framework links India’s macroeconomic growth trajectories with specific sectoral pathways across transport, industry, buildings, agriculture, and waste to create a coherent national roadmap.
The analysis utilizes two primary pathways—the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), representing ongoing trends, and the Net Zero Scenario (NZS), an ambitious pathway that achieves deep decarbonization through accelerated electrification and technology-led structural evolution.
Strategic Pillars of the Net Zero Transition The report identifies several foundational pillars that must act in synergy to decouple economic growth from carbon emissions:
Massive Demand Electrification: Electrification emerges as the cornerstone of the transition, with electricity’s share of final energy demand projected to rise from 21% today to 60% by 2070 under the Net Zero Scenario.
Non-Fossil Fuel Dominance: By 2070, non-fossil sources are expected to provide 86% of primary energy, with Renewable Energy (RE) acting as the backbone (63% share) and Nuclear Energy serving as a critical strategic pillar for firm, low-carbon power (23% share).
Green Hydrogen and Low-Carbon Carriers: For hard-to-abate sectors like steel and fertilizers, Green Hydrogen (GH2) demand is projected to reach 50 million tonnes (Mt) by 2070, anchored by hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) and green ammonia.
Transition to a Circular Economy: The industrial base will shift from primary material dependence to circularity, with scrap/Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) shares in steel rising to 40% and clinker ratios in cement falling to 0.55 by 2070.
Last-Mile Carbon Capture (CCUS): Carbon capture technology will scale as a vital lever to address residual process emissions, expanding from pilot stages to a capacity of roughly 1,000 MtCO2/year by 2070.
Energy-GDP Decoupling: Through strategic technology choices and efficiency gains, India aims to achieve a decoupling factor of 4.7, ensuring that economic output increases significantly while energy demand remains sustainable.
What are “Integrated Assessment Models” (IAMs) in the context of climate policy? Integrated Assessment Models are complex analytical tools that link multiple systems—such as the economy, energy, land use, and climate—into a single framework to evaluate the long-term impacts of policy choices. In this report, NITI Aayog used an integrated modeling framework (including models like TIMES, MANAGE, and LTGM) to ensure that the goal of becoming a USD 30 trillion “Viksit Bharat” is mathematically consistent with the technical requirements of the “Net Zero 2070” target. These models help policymakers visualize trade-offs, such as how rapid electrification in transport affects the required investment in the power grid and critical mineral supply chains.
Policy Relevance
The NITI Aayog report represents a transition from sector-specific planning to a unified national architecture for a developed, low-carbon economy. By institutionalizing an integrated modeling framework, the Government of India is providing a strategic blueprint for private and public capital to align with the dual goals of economic prosperity and planetary sustainability.
Strategic Impact:
Macroeconomic Resilience: Reducing the fossil fuel import bill and decoupling growth from energy intensity will safeguard India’s Current Account Deficit (CAD) and enhance long-term fiscal stability.
Industrial Sovereignty: Shifting toward Circular Economy practices (e.g., secondary steel and aluminum) and Critical Mineral security reduces India’s vulnerability to global supply chain disruptions and resource nationalism.
Energy Security through Diversification: The massive scale-up of indigenous Renewables and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) ensures a secure, firm power supply that is resilient to global energy price volatility.
Trade Competitiveness: Proactive decarbonization in export-oriented sectors like steel and textiles prepares Indian industry for global climate-linked trade measures like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Follow the full report here: NITI Aayog: Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero (Vol. 1)