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NITI Aayog | Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) | Ministry of Railways
The NITI Aayog report, Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Transport mentions that India’s transport sector, which currently accounts for 20% of final energy demand and 10% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, must undergo a fundamental transformation to achieve Net Zero emissions by 2070 . Utilizing the Activity Structure Intensity Fuel (ASIF) framework, the study compares a Current Policy Scenario (CPS) with a transformative Net Zero Scenario (NZS). Under the NZS, transport energy demand is projected to fall to 200 Mtoe by 2070, approximately 40% lower than the CPS, driven by near-universal adoption of Zero-Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) and a significant structural shift towards public and shared transport. This transition requires a cumulative investment of USD 4.3 trillion till 2070, offering strategic dividends such as reduced oil imports, improved health outcomes, and the creation of new clean-transport industries.
Strategic Pillars for India’s Sustainable Mobility Transition The report identifies several critical foundational pillars for steering India’s transport engine onto a low-carbon path:
Accelerating Zero-Emission Vehicles (ZEVs): Achieving 100% ZEV sales by approximately 2055 is essential to taper fleet-level emissions to zero, necessitating a focus on Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), hydrogen-based vehicles, and biofuels.
Structural Modal Shifts: By 2070, the share of rail in passenger and freight transport is projected to increase to 25% and 30% respectively, while public and shared modes should account for 60% of all passenger trips.
Advancing Fuel Diversity: The fuel mix will pivot decisively toward electricity, biofuels, and green hydrogen, with electricity’s share more than doubling between 2050 and 2070.
Transit-Oriented Development (TOD): Promoting compact, connected urban zones can reduce overall travel demand and limit per capita mobility needs even as incomes rise.
Circular Carbon Economy: Establishing robust vehicle and battery recycling systems, including a “Battery Aadhaar” for traceability, is vital to ensure long-term resource efficiency.
What is the difference between the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and the Net Zero Scenario (NZS)? The Current Policy Scenario (CPS) reflects a “business-as-usual” growth trajectory based on historical trends and policies implemented as of 2023. In contrast, the Net Zero Scenario (NZS) incorporates ambitious structural changes and efforts required to achieve economy-wide net zero emissions by 2070, including early electrification, aggressive modal shifts to rail and waterways, and the widespread adoption of clean fuels like hydrogen and biofuels.
Policy Relevance
The NITI Aayog findings represent a transition from discrete sectoral upgrades to an integrated, technology-driven national mobility framework. By institutionalizing the Net Zero Scenario, the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways and the Ministry of Railways are providing a long-term roadmap that balances economic growth aspirations with the imperative of environmental stewardship.
Achieving Energy Security: Decoupling transport from oil imports through electrification and hydrogen can insulate the Indian economy from global fuel volatility and price shocks.
Bolstering Industrial “Atmanirbharta”: Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes for batteries and hydrogen electrolyzers are critical for building domestic supply chains and reducing dependence on imported components.
Enhancing Logistics Efficiency: Shifting freight to Dedicated Freight Corridors (DFCs) and waterways can significantly lower logistics costs toward the goal of 8% of GDP, improving industrial competitiveness.
Future-Proofing Urban Infrastructure: Empowering Unified Metropolitan Transport Authorities (UMTAs) and leveraging Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) like the Unified Energy Interface (UEI) can create transparent, interoperable mobility services.
Follow the full report here: NITI Aayog: Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Transport