Mapping Population Shifts: OECD’s Typology and India’s Post‑2026 Demographic Challenges
SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities | SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities | SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
NITI Aayog | Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)
The OECD report, ‘Classifying Shrinking Regions: Shrinking Smartly and Sustainably’ (2025) introduces a new typology to help policymakers map and respond to profound demographic transitions across regional, city, and local levels. While metropolitan regions in many OECD and EU countries continue to grow, more than one in five small and midsize cities and many rural areas have experienced steep population declines.
Key Findings on Shrinking Regions:
Diversity of Decline: The report distinguishes between natural change (birth vs. death rates) and migration as drivers of population loss.
Spatial Variation: Small and midsize cities are particularly vulnerable, whereas large metropolitan hubs often remain “high growth” regions.
Infrastructure Mismatch: Depopulation and ageing create a stark mismatch between existing infrastructure (e.g., schools) and the actual needs of the remaining, often older, local population.
Typology Components: The framework classifies regions into five categories ranging from “High decline“ (e.g., parts of Italy and Japan) to “High growth“ (e.g., Luxembourg and Switzerland).
What is a “Shrinking Region” according to the OECD? It refers to a geographical area—whether a city, town, or rural district—experiencing a sustained decrease in total population, often accompanied by an ageing demographic and a shrinking labor force, requiring place-based policy interventions rather than one-size-fits-all solutions.
Policy Relevance
While India remains the world’s most populous nation, it is facing a “demographic crossroads” with sharp regional variations that mirror the OECD’s findings on shrinking and growing regions.
The North-South Divide: Southern states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh are experiencing rapidly ageing populations and falling fertility rates (TFR ~1.6), moving toward stabilization and potential regional “shrinking”. In contrast, northern states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh continue to see a youth bulge.
Rural-Urban Transition: India is witnessing massive rural-to-urban migration (8–10 million people annually), leading to rural depopulation in certain pockets and intense pressure on urban infrastructure in others.
Place-Based Interventions: The government has announced the Demographic Mission 2025 to plan for regional capabilities and inclusion, specifically addressing the needs of the growing “silver economy” in the South and skilling the youth bulge in the North.
Political Implications: The expiration of the freeze on parliamentary seats in 2026 and the subsequent delimitation exercise will be highly influenced by these regional population shifts, potentially impacting the federal structure.
Follow the full report here: Classifying shrinking regions: Shrinking smartly and sustainably