India’s Emissions Grow Fastest Among Major Economies but Per-Capita Output Remains Low; On Track to Meet 2030 Commitments
SDG 13: Climate Action | SDG 7: Affordable & Clean Energy
Institutions: Ministry of Environment, Forest & Climate Change
India’s climate profile in the UNEP(United Nations Environment Programme) Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target reflects a dual reality: rapid emissions growth amid rising development needs, alongside relatively low per-capita emissions and progressive mitigation targets.
In 2024, India recorded the highest absolute increase in emissions followed by China and registered one of the fastest growth rates among major economies at 3.6%, second only to Indonesia. Yet India’s per-capita emissions remain below the global average of 6.4 tCO₂e, underscoring the country’s lower historical responsibility and ongoing developmental context.
India’s NDC commitments to 2030 include a 45% reduction in emissions intensity of GDP compared with 2005 levels, a ~40% non-fossil share in power capacity, and 2.5–3 GtCO₂ equivalent carbon-sink enhancement. UNEP assesses that India is on track to meet its conditional 2030 target (NDCs) under current policies, contrasting with several G20 peers projected to fall short. However, the report notes that India has not yet set quantified carbon removal targets, a gap shared with other emerging emitters.
At a global level, UNEP warns that both ambition and implementation gaps persist. Full delivery of current NDCs places the world on a 2.3–2.5°C pathway by 2100 — far above the Paris Agreement limit — while current policies imply ~2.8°C. Global emissions grew 2.3% in 2024 to 57.7 GtCO₂e, exceeding the average growth rate of the 2010s more than fourfold. To hold warming close to 1.5°C, emissions would need to fall 55% from 2019 levels by 2035, whereas existing NDCs achieve only 15%. UNEP concludes that a “temporary overshoot” of the 1.5°C threshold is now likely within the next decade, requiring rapid decarbonisation, methane abatement, and carbon-removal scale-up to reduce and subsequently reverse the overshoot.
For India, the findings reinforce the challenge and opportunity of sequencing developmental growth with accelerated decarbonisation, including stronger renewable expansion, efficiency gains, methane management, and investment in sink enhancement and future removal pathways.
Why India’s total emissions are rising and yet per-capita emissions remain low? → India’s emissions profile reflects a dual reality: as a fast-growing economy with a very large population, its total greenhouse-gas emissions are increasing due to expanding energy demand, industrialisation and urbanisation; yet its per-capita emissions remain well below the global average because those emissions are distributed across 1.4 billion people and average consumption levels remain comparatively modest. This means India is now a major contributor to annual global emissions growth, but the average Indian still emits far less than the average global citizen.
For policymakers and international stakeholders, this highlights India’s underlying principle of development equity: the country has not been a historical driver of climate change, it requires development space and climate finance to transition fairly, and its future emissions pathway will materially influence global outcomes.
Follow the full report here: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025