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Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI) | National Statistics Office (NSO)
The National Statistics Office (NSO) has released the First Advance Estimates (FAE) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the financial year 2025-26. The report projects a resilient growth trajectory for the Indian economy, with Real GDP estimated to grow by 7.4%, a significant acceleration from the 6.5% growth recorded in FY 2024-25.
The growth momentum is predominantly driven by a buoyant Services Sector, which pushed the estimated Real Gross Value Added (GVA) growth to 7.3%. On the demand side, the economy is supported by steady household spending and a robust investment cycle:
Real GDP & GVA: Real GDP is projected to reach ₹201.90 lakh crore, while Real GVA is estimated at ₹184.50 lakh crore.
Nominal Growth: Nominal GDP is expected to grow by 8.0%, reaching a level of ₹357.14 lakh crore.
Sectoral Performance: The Tertiary (Services) Sector remains the primary engine of growth, with segments like Financial and Professional Services estimated to grow by a substantial 9.9%. The Secondary Sector, comprising Manufacturing and Construction, is projected to achieve a healthy 7.0% growth rate.
Consumption & Investment: Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) is estimated to grow at 7.0%, while Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)—a proxy for investment—is projected to rise by 7.8%.
What are the First Advance Estimates (FAE)? They are the first official projections of the country’s annual economic performance, typically released in the first week of January. Compiled using the benchmark-indicator method, these estimates extrapolate data from the first 7–8 months of the financial year to provide a full-year picture. The FAE serve as the critical base for the government’s upcoming Union Budget numbers.
Policy Relevance
The FAE 2025-26 data underscores the success of recent fiscal and structural interventions, positioning India as one of the fastest-growing major economies despite global trade uncertainties and tariff pressures.
Strategic Impact for India:
Budgetary Planning: These estimates provide the macro-fiscal foundation for the Union Budget 2026-27, enabling the government to calibrate its deficit targets and expenditure priorities.
Disposable Income Boost: Recent income tax relief for the middle class and GST rate cuts (implemented in Sept 2025) are credited with reviving domestic demand and driving the 7% growth in private consumption.
Investment Momentum: The 7.8% growth in GFCF reflects the “crowding-in” effect of sustained government capital expenditure on infrastructure (roads, railways, and energy).
Resilience in Services: The continued dominance of services exports—despite global headwinds—helps buffer India’s external sector and supports a healthy National Income trajectory.
Follow the full report here: FIRST ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR 2025-26