Economic Survey 2025-26: India Anchors Global Growth With Robust Macroeconomic Stability
SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth | SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure | SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
Ministry of Finance | Department of Economic Affairs | NITI Aayog
The Economic Survey 2025-26, presented by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on January 29, 2026, projects India to remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy for the fourth consecutive year. Real GDP growth for FY26 is estimated at 7.4%, while the forecast for FY27 is set at 6.8–7.2%. Notably, the Survey has upgraded India’s potential growth rate to approximately 7%, up from 6.5% three years ago, reflecting structural resilience and the success of long-term reforms.
Broad-Based Demand and Fiscal Discipline
Growth is anchored by resilient domestic demand and prudent fiscal management:
Consumption Recovery: Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) grew by 7.0% in FY26, reaching 61.5% of GDP, the highest level since 2012. This surge is supported by low average headline inflation of 1.7% (April–December 2025) and stable employment.
Investment Surge: Gross Fixed Capital Formation grew by 7.8% in FY26, maintaining a steady 30% share of GDP. Central government capital expenditure has risen significantly, reaching roughly 4% of GDP in FY25.
Fiscal Consolidation: The Centre is well on track to meet the 4.4% fiscal deficit target for FY26. Revenue receipts strengthened to 9.2% of GDP in FY25, driven by improved tax compliance and technology.
External Resilience and Industrial Renaissance
India’s external sector stands as an “oasis of stability” in a fragile global environment:
Foreign Exchange Buffers: Reserves increased to $701.4 billion as of January 16, 2026, providing cover for 11 months of imports and 94% of external debt.
Trade Dynamism: India’s share of global merchandise exports nearly doubled to 1.8% between 2005 and 2024, while services exports hit an all-time high of $387.6 billion in FY25.
Manufacturing Revival: Manufacturing GVA grew by 9.13% in Q2 FY26, catalyzed by the PLI schemes which have attracted over ₹2.0 lakh crore in actual investment.
Banking Sector Health: Scheduled Commercial Banks recorded a multi-decadal low GNPA ratio of 2.2% in September 2025.
Strategic Resilience through Disciplined Swadeshi
A central pillar of the Survey’s vision for Viksit Bharat 2047 is the proposed Disciplined Swadeshi framework. This three-tiered strategy moves beyond traditional import substitution to build strategic resilience by distinguishing between:
Tier 1: Critical vulnerabilities that require high strategic urgency for indigenization.
Tier 2: Economically feasible capabilities that offer significant strategic payoffs.
Tier 3: Areas of low strategic urgency or high-cost substitution where global integration remains preferable. The framework aims to transition India from self-reliance to Strategic Indispensability, embedding the nation so deeply into global supply chains that the world moves from “thinking about buying Indian” to “buying Indian without thinking”.
Policy Relevance
The Survey provides a strategic roadmap for the Viksit Bharat 2047 vision through deep structural shifts.
National Input Cost Reduction: A new strategy treats competitiveness as “infrastructure,” focusing on making land, energy, and logistics affordable to boost the MSME sector.
Urban and Rural Synergy: The Namo Bharat RRTS is identified as a tool to reshape regional labor markets, while the Viksit Bharat-Gram initiative aims to overhaul rural employment through statutory reforms.
Technological Sovereignty: The India Semiconductor Mission and the achievement of autonomous satellite docking (SPADEX) mark a shift toward high-value, deep-tech economic leadership.
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