COP30 Alert: Global Climate Off Track as WMO Confirms World Nears 1.5°C Threshold
SDG 13: Climate Action | SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy | SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
Institutions: Ministry of Earth Sciences | Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change | India Meteorological Department (IMD)
The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 confirms the world is dangerously off track to meet the Paris Agreement goals based on physical data. Key physical indicators have reached alarming new records:
Temperature: Mean near-surface temperature in January–August 2025 was a provisional 1.42 °C ± 0.12 °C above the pre-industrial average. The year 2025 is on track to be the second or third warmest year on record, with the last 11 years (2015-2025) being the eleven warmest years in the observational record.
Greenhouse Gases (GHGs): Concentrations of the three key GHGs (CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O) reached record observed levels in 2024 and continue to rise in 2025. The increase in CO₂ concentration from 2023 to 2024 was a record 3.5 ppm.
Ocean and Cryosphere: Ocean heat content (OHC) reached the highest level on record in 2024. Glaciers recorded an observed record loss of 1.3 metres water equivalent of ice in the 2023/2024 hydrological year. Arctic sea-ice extent hit its lowest annual maximum on record in March 2025.
Impact on India/Asia and Global Water Cycle
Extreme Events: Weather and climate-related extreme events led to major cascading impacts. This included Monsoon flooding that caused 881 reported deaths in Pakistan and affected northern India.
Precipitation Anomalies: January to August 2025 saw unusually high precipitation across much of Asia (South and South-east Asia).
Water Cycle Disruption: Global river discharge anomalies continued in 2024, marking the sixth consecutive year of widespread disruption in the global water cycle. High flows were recorded in several Asian basins, including the Ganges and upper Indus.
Renewable Energy Stress: Below-normal wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) power production in South Asia coincided with higher-than-average energy demand in 2024, highlighting potential stress on the region’s energy sector.
Actionable Steps Highlighted by the Report
The WMO calls for decisive action on resilience, adaptation, and data systems:
1. Strengthen Early Warning Systems (EW4All):
Close gaps as 40% of countries still lack Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems. Prioritise investment in connectivity, data access, and technical skills to improve forecasting and observation.
2. Expand Climate Services:
Empower National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) to deliver science-based climate risk profiles and support Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) through better integration into policy.
3. Build Climate-Resilient Energy Systems:
Adopt climate-informed energy planning to anticipate shifts in temperature, wind, and precipitation, ensuring reliable and flexible clean energy infrastructure, especially in vulnerable regions like South Asia.
Note on Report Differences: WMO vs. OECD
The WMO State of the Climate 2025 Update and the OECD Climate Action Monitor 2025 serve distinct, yet complementary, purposes. The WMO report is a Global, Science-Based Assessment focused on Physical Climate Indicators (e.g., temperature, ocean heat, glacier mass loss) to describe the severity of the problem universally. In contrast, the OECD report is a Targeted Policy Evaluation focused on socio-economic and regulatory metrics (e.g., NDC compliance, carbon pricing, policy stringency) to assess the adequacy of the policy response within its 52 member and partner countries.
Follow the full report here: State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30