SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy | SDG 13: Climate Action | SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
Ministry of Power | Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
The APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (9th Edition 2025) analyzes the complex energy pathways for the 21 APEC member economies, which collectively represent 60% of global energy consumption and production. The report contrasts a Reference Scenario (REF), based on current trends, with an ambitious Target Scenario (TGT) that assumes all energy-related policy targets are successfully met. Central to this analysis is the Energy Trilemma, as policymakers strive to balance the urgent need for decarbonization with the imperatives of security and affordability.
Key regional findings and projections through 2060:
Peak Demand: Under the TGT, energy demand is expected to peak as early as 2035, compared to 2053 in the REF scenario, primarily due to the rapid electrification of transport and buildings.
Decarbonization Targets: Net $CO_{2}$ emissions are projected to drop by 67% by 2060 in the TGT. The power and transport sectors are identified as the most significant drivers for these reductions.
Renewable Acceleration: APEC likely achieved its goal of doubling the share of modern renewables in 2024—six years ahead of the 2030 target. However, tripling renewable capacity remains a challenge, projected for 2034 in the TGT.
Energy Mix Shifts: Fossil fuels are projected to decline from 85% in 2022 to 47% by 2060 in the TGT. Modern renewables are expected to reach 64% of total electricity generation by 2060 in the same pathway.
System Costs: The financial commitment for decarbonizing the power and hydrogen sectors is estimated at USD 91 trillion between 2025 and 2060 in the Target Scenario.
What is the Energy Trilemma? It is the core challenge for policymakers to simultaneously achieve three often-conflicting goals: Energy Security (reliability of supply), Energy Equity (affordability and universal access), and Environmental Sustainability (reducing emissions and mitigating climate change).
Policy Relevance
Although India is not an APEC member, its energy landscape is deeply intertwined with Asia-Pacific trends, making the report’s projections a vital strategic benchmark for Indian policymakers.
Benchmarking Transition Goals: APEC’s success in doubling its renewable share ahead of schedule serves as a technical validation for India’s aim of reaching 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030. India can leverage APEC’s Target Scenario cost modeling to refine its own long-term infrastructure investment requirements.
Hydrogen Trade Strategy: With APEC predicting high dependency ratios (>85%) for hydrogen-based fuels, India’s National Green Hydrogen Mission can position the country as a critical supplier. Aligning with APEC’s emerging hydrogen production and trade strategies will be essential for India to secure international partnerships.
Grid Stability Solutions: As electricity demand from Data Centres and AI in the region is projected to surge by 140% (2025–2035), India can learn from APEC’s deployment of AI-enabled grids and seasonal hydrogen storage to manage the variability of solar and wind power.
Supply Chain Resilience: APEC’s increasing import dependency in Southeast Asia and China for transition-critical minerals (lithium, cobalt) highlights an area for Indian strategic focus. India’s policies on mineral security and refining must account for these regional shifts to maintain competitive energy pricing.
Follow the full news here: APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 9th Edition